How USDA landed against the trade
Orange dot = USDA November. Black line = trade average (Reuters poll, StoneX summary). Gray range = the trade's low–high.
Trade estimates, 2026/27 (StoneX summary of the Reuters poll)
All estimates are from the Reuters poll as summarized by StoneX. The headline uses the full average and range. The current-month columns count only estimates updated for this month.
| Item | USDA Oct | Trade avg | Range | Current-month avg | Current-month range | Last year | USDA Nov | vs. trade |
|---|
Source: StoneX, "Trade Estimate Summary for November 10, 2026 USDA Reports" (all estimates provided by Reuters). USDA October: WASDE-676.
Futures reaction
| Contract | Settle Nov 9 | ~11:01 CT | ~11:06 CT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec corn (ZCZ6) | $4.39¼ | $4.50¾ +11½¢ | $4.52½ +13¼¢ |
| Jan soybeans (ZSF7) | $11.88¼ | $12.16 +27¾¢ | $12.23¾ +35½¢ |
| Dec Chicago wheat (ZWZ6) | $5.88 | $5.97¼ +9¼¢ | $5.95¼ +7¼¢ |
| Dec KC wheat (KEZ6) | $6.32½ | $6.45 +12½¢ | $6.39¼ +6¾¢ |
Prior close: CME Group settlements, trade date Mon Nov 9. Report-day prices: Tredas real-time trading board, Nov 10. Board times: corn and soybeans 11:01:05 and 11:06:12; Chicago wheat 11:01:21 and 11:06:22; KC wheat 11:01:14 and 11:06:29 (Central). Changes are from the Nov 9 settlement.
How it landed
- Corn: yield 179.6 vs. 180.4 expected, 1.6 below October. Production 15.893 billion. Ending stocks 1,758, 84 million under the trade and inside the 1,685–2,049 range.
- Soybeans: yield 53.3 vs. 53.5 expected. Exports raised 25 million. Stocks of 300 are 32 million under the trade, near the low end of the 280–370 range.
- Wheat: US stocks 743 vs. 744 expected. HRW exports cut again, offset by White. World stocks 280.8 MMT, above the whole trade range, on bigger crops in Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
- World soybeans: 123.5 MMT vs. 124.9 expected.
Corn and soybeans tightened. No US crop is in shortage territory, and sorghum tipped into the ample range.
Stocks-to-use ranked against every marketing year from 1995/96 to 2025/26, using USDA's November numbers. World sorghum still uses October's PSD figure until USDA's database updates.
2026/27 rank against history
0 = tightest year, 100 = most ample. The shaded band is the middle half of history. Orange marks the bottom quartile.
US stocks-to-use by marketing year (%)
Ending stocks ÷ (domestic use + exports). Shaded band = middle half of 1995/96 to 2025/26. Hover a line for any year.
Source: USDA FAS PSD Online through 2025/26 (October 9, 2026 release); 2026/27 from WASDE-677, November 10 (world sorghum still the October PSD figure). World stocks-to-use = ending stocks ÷ total use.
What it would take to leave the middle of the range
At today's projected use. The yield equivalent is the stock change divided by harvested acres.
| Crop | Stocks today | Tight line (bottom quartile) | Change to get tight | Ample line (top quartile) | Change to get ample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 1,758 mil bu (10.8%) | 9.4% → 1,528 | −230 mil bu ≈ −2.6 bu/ac | 15.7% → 2,552 | +794 mil bu ≈ +9.0 bu/ac |
| Soybeans | 300 mil bu (6.5%) | 5.4% → 249 | −51 mil bu ≈ −0.6 bu/ac | 8.8% → 406 | +106 mil bu ≈ +1.2 bu/ac |
| Wheat | 743 mil bu (40.0%) | 25.0% → 464 | −279 mil bu (exports or feed) | 43.4% → 806 | +63 mil bu (≈ −8% exports) |
| Sorghum | 34 mil bu (12.4%) | 7.6% → 21 | −13 mil bu ≈ −2.5 bu/ac | 11.5% → 32 | Already above it by 2 mil bu |
Change the numbers and see where stocks and price could land
Every field starts at USDA's November projection. Type your own numbers, or try an event. Ending stocks, stocks-to-use, the historical rank and an implied farm price update as you go.
Try an event
Stocks-to-use vs. season-average farm price
Scenario balance sheet
| Item | USDA Nov | Scenario | Change |
|---|
Corn price tracks its stocks-to-use closely. Soybeans and wheat much less so.
Correlation between each crop's stocks-to-use and its season-average farm price. The fit is a curve, because price rises faster as stocks get tight.
How strong is the link?
r is the correlation of log price with log stocks-to-use (−1 is a perfect inverse link). R² is the share of the price swings that stocks-to-use explains. The last column is the historical price response to a 10% drop in stocks-to-use.
| Crop | Stocks measure | Window | Years | r | R² | 10% tighter stocks → price |
|---|
Prices: USDA ERS Feed Grains Database, Wheat Data and Oil Crops Yearbook. 2025/26 is the WASDE estimate, unchanged in November. Stocks-to-use: USDA FAS PSD Online. Prices are nominal.
How to read it
- Corn has the strongest link (r ≈ −0.85 since 2007/08). Stocks-to-use explains about 70% of the year-to-year price swings.
- Sorghum barely follows its own stocks. It is priced off corn, so its price is modeled on corn stocks-to-use, which explains about 78% of the swings.
- Wheat is moderate. World supplies from Russia, the EU and the Black Sea matter as much as US stocks.
- Soybeans are weak (R² ≈ 0.3). China demand, Brazil's crop and biofuel policy drive price beyond US stocks.
Why the default window starts in 2007/08
The Renewable Fuel Standard expansion and higher production costs reset the price level after 2006. Fitting from 1995 mixes two price regimes and weakens every link. You can switch windows in the scenario lab.
These are historical relationships, not forecasts. The scenario price starts from USDA's own projected price and moves it by the historical response. The gray band shows the typical miss of the fit.
US supply and use, October vs. November
Pick a crop. Changes are colored by direction, not by whether they are bullish or bearish.
| Item | Unit | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 Oct | 2026/27 Nov | Change |
|---|
A smaller crop and slower exports take 91 million bushels off stocks
Yield fell 1.6 bu/ac to 179.6 on unchanged harvested area of 88.5 million acres, cutting production 141 million bushels to 15.893 billion.
2026/27 corn, October vs. November
| Item (mil bu) | Oct | Nov | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield (bu/ac) | 181.2 | 179.6 | −1.6 |
| Production | 16,034 | 15,893 | −141 |
| Feed and residual | 6,000 | 5,975 | −25 |
| Ethanol | 5,650 | 5,650 | 0 |
| Exports | 3,300 | 3,275 | −25 |
| Total use | 16,305 | 16,255 | −50 |
| Ending stocks | 1,849 | 1,758 | −91 |
| Farm price ($/bu) | 4.70 | 4.60 | −0.10 |
What changed and why
- Feed: cut 25 million with the smaller crop.
- Exports: cut 25 million to 3.275 billion on shipments and sales to date.
- Price: USDA lowered the season-average price 10¢ to $4.60 even as stocks fell. Futures moved the other way, with Dec corn up 11½¢ shortly after the release.
- World: Argentina +2.0 MMT to 57.0, Brazil +2.0 to 141.0. South Africa −1.5 to 15.0, EU −0.5 to 47.5. Ukraine's exports were cut 2.0 MMT, so its stocks rose. World stocks 281.9 MMT; ex-China 115.0, down 0.3.
Illinois drove the corn cut; Minnesota offset part of it
The 10 biggest state changes in bushels, bu/ac. Illinois −8 bu on 11.0 million acres took out about 88 million bushels. Minnesota +9 bu added about 75 million.
Source: NASS Crop Production, November 10, 2026.
Exports, not yield, took soybean stocks to 300
Yield rose 0.2 to 53.3 bu/ac, but exports were raised 25 million to 1.720 billion on early-season pace. Stocks-to-use fell to 6.5%.
2026/27 soybeans, October vs. November
| Item (mil bu) | Oct | Nov | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield (bu/ac) | 53.1 | 53.3 | +0.2 |
| Production | 4,562 | 4,574 | +12 |
| Crush | 2,780 | 2,780 | 0 |
| Exports | 1,695 | 1,720 | +25 |
| Seed and residual | 112 | 114 | +2 |
| Ending stocks | 315 | 300 | −15 |
| Farm price ($/bu) | 12.00 | 12.10 | +0.10 |
The detail
- States: higher yields in Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Nebraska, partly offset by Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas.
- Products: meal price unchanged at $340/ton. Soybean oil cut 2¢ to 68¢/lb.
- World: production 442.5 MMT, down 0.2 on Ukraine, South Africa, the EU and Mexico. World stocks 123.5 MMT, down 0.8, mainly the US and Argentina. Brazil unchanged at 186.0.
Minnesota, Iowa and the western states carried the soybean gain
The 10 biggest state changes in bushels, bu/ac. Illinois −4 bu cost about 42 million bushels; Minnesota +5 bu added about 37 million.
Source: NASS Crop Production, November 10, 2026.
US wheat barely moved. The world added 4.8 MMT of stocks.
US ending stocks rose 3 million to 743 on lower food use. Exports held at 750, but Hard Red Winter fell to the second lowest on record.
2026/27 ending stocks by class (mil bu)
| Class | Exports Nov | Ending stocks Oct | Ending stocks Nov | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Red Winter | 165 (Oct 175) | 333 | 344 | +11 |
| Hard Red Spring | 225 | 197 | 198 | +1 |
| Soft Red Winter | 100 | 105 | 106 | +1 |
| White | 235 (Oct 225) | 80 | 70 | −10 |
| Durum | 25 | 24 | 24 | 0 |
| All wheat | 750 | 740 | 743 | +3 |
World exporters, 2026/27 (MMT)
| Exporter | Production Nov | Exports Oct | Exports Nov | Ending stocks Nov |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 23.0 (+1.5) | 16.0 | 16.5 | 2.87 |
| Australia | 32.5 (+1.5) | 23.5 | 24.5 | 5.15 |
| Kazakhstan | 15.8 (+0.8) | 9.5 | 9.5 | 2.53 |
| Ukraine | 26.5 (+0.5) | 12.5 | 11.5 | 7.30 |
| Russia | 88.0 | 40.0 | 39.0 | 20.09 |
| Canada | 36.5 | 30.5 | 30.5 | 4.75 |
| EU | 133.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 11.72 |
| United States | 41.74 | 20.41 | 20.41 | 20.22 |
World ending stocks 280.8 MMT (+4.8), ex-China 161.6. Black Sea shipments remain below average, so Russian and Ukrainian grain is backing up at home rather than freeing export business for the US.
Yield cut 3.3 bushels, but lost exports pushed stocks up
Sorghum stocks rose 8 million to 34 million, and stocks-to-use went from 8.7% to 12.4%, above the top quartile of history.
2026/27 sorghum, October vs. November
| Item (mil bu) | Oct | Nov | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield (bu/ac) | 55.7 | 52.4 | −3.3 |
| Production | 291 | 274 | −17 |
| Feed and residual | 60 | 70 | +10 |
| Exports | 160 | 125 | −35 |
| Ending stocks | 26 | 34 | +8 |
| Farm price ($/bu) | 4.50 | 4.45 | −0.05 |
Why it matters
- Exports: the 35 million cut is the biggest change on the sheet. USDA also raised Brazil's sorghum crop 1.5 MMT to 8.0 on expanded area, and Brazil's shipments are taking some of that business.
- China: USDA has China using more sorghum and barley in place of corn feed, which leaves room for export demand to come back.
- Price: sorghum is priced off corn, so the tighter corn sheet matters more for sorghum bids than its own stocks do.
Harvest is nearly done and the next swing factor is demand
Crop Progress for the week ending November 8, released November 9.
| Crop | Done | Week before | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn harvested | 81% | 74% | 86% |
| Soybeans harvested | 92% | 88% | 91% |
| Sorghum harvested | 70% | 64% | 85% |
| Winter wheat planted | 89% | 83% | 90% |
| Winter wheat emerged | 76% | 65% | 74% |
Winter wheat is rated 49% good/excellent, up from 44%. Topsoil is 34% short or very short, down from 48% in mid-October. Source: NASS Crop Progress, November 9, 2026.
December 10 WASDE
No new yield survey for corn or soybeans until January. December changes will come from demand, mainly exports.
Weekly export sales
Corn against 3.275 billion and soybeans against 1.720 billion. Soybeans need the pace to hold to justify the higher number.
January 12 final crop
The Annual Crop Production and December 1 Grain Stocks reports are the next big yield and feed checks.
South America
USDA raised Argentina and Brazil corn this month. Planting weather from here sets the 2027 export competition.
Sorghum exports
A return of Chinese buying is the main way sorghum's 34 million bushel carryout gets worked back down.
Wheat
Southern Hemisphere harvests are getting bigger. HRW needs a lower price to win back export business.